Posts Tagged ‘donald trump’

The Battle of the Polls

November 1, 2020

This NY Times article is very clear: “Joseph R. Biden Jr. leads President Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin.” Polling wizards at The Trafalgar Group see things differently. Their polling process emphasizes anonymity and is more likely to get accurate responses from the “shy” Trump supporters. TFG has Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona with a very small lead in Wisconsin for Biden. So, according to TFG, it’s really close and could easily go Trump’s way. Time will tell.

Impressive Model-Based Prediction

November 1, 2020

Jim Rickards really sticks his neck out on this one: a Trump victory. He does not claim 100% certainty, but does have great confidence in his model-based prediction. Shy voters play a role — those who do not admit they will vote for Trump. But that’s not the only reason…

A Well-Argued Case For Trump’s Victory

November 1, 2020

This article from Iowa is well-argued as to why the polls do not accurately reflect Trump’s standing. Basically, many conservative voters who will vote for Trump are not participating in the polls. And likely voters (versus registered voters) are not being counted. We’ll see!

Shy Voters Make the Difference!

October 23, 2020

According to this pollster, shy voters embarrassed to admit they will vote for Trump will power him to a narrow victory. Interesting!

Dueling Projections Election 2020

October 21, 2020

These are two opposite projections about the 2020 presidential elections, issued on about October 21, about two weeks before election day. I have to say, both articles are convincing: Fox News versus New York Times. We’ll see!

Prediction About Presidential Election

May 19, 2020

It’s quite a prediction for a “liberal landslide“: Democratic president and both houses of Congress!


Election Hacking Prediction

January 2, 2017

It’s Monday, January 2. On Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, Trump will reveal new information about hacking that is relevant to Russia’s hacking of US computers in an attempt to influence the election. Short-term prediction.

The UPI story is here.

Predicting Trump: The Five Points

December 3, 2016

From the Breitbart site, a prediction of the Trump presidency from early actions:

  1. He will keep his promises and keep in close touch with his supporters, as well as all Americans.  And if that means bypassing the MainStream Media, well, the MSM will have to deal with it. 
  2. As befits the author of the classic book, The Art of the Deal, he will be a hands-on, deal-making activist on behalf of jobs and growth.
  3. He will adopt an inclusive, even magnanimous, approach to governing, befitting a leader who has pledged to be president for all Americans.  And that means making room, at least a little, for even “Never Trump” Republicans.
  4. He will govern in a common-sense spirit, however politically incorrect.
  5. He will uphold center-right American nationalism, even if the liberal elite hates it.


Even though there is potential subjectivity in this, these are relatively concrete. I know others who think Trump will disappoint many of his supporters. We’ll see…