Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

An Optimistic Economic Prediction for 2021

January 2, 2021

Here is an optimistic prediction from a NY Times economist. A strong recovery!

Prediction About the Dow

April 4, 2020

Amid the pandemic, here is a very definitive prediction for the Dow Jones stock index, from someone who supposedly has an excellent track record. Basically, the Dow will drop to 15,000, where it was back in 2013. We’ll see!

Starting Interplanetary Travel

September 30, 2017

Elon Musk reveals plans for interplanetary travel by the mid-2020s. Very soon!



S&P 500 Predictions, By Yours Truly

January 1, 2014

This prediction is based on the idea that the stock market tends to become overvalued/undervalued in a cyclic fashion, driven by too many dollars chasing too few stocks. As stocks rise, more people want them. They become overvalued, etc.

The S&P 500 is currently at 1848. 2013 has been a banner year. I predict that stocks will continue to rise for 1.5-2 years, approximately. At that time, we’ll have had a steadily rising market for in excess of 5 years, which is a long time. So, there will be a major correction. The correction will bring the S&P 500 to a value lower than what it is now, to about 1600 or so. This correction will occur over about two years (e.g. the correction will be nearing its end in about 4 years from now). At that point, it’s a good idea to get back in to stocks.

People getting heavily into stocks now will end up losers at the correction point, but if they keep in stocks, the prices will eventually recover.

Water, Water, Water

May 25, 2013

Dire prediction about water shortage in the future. I hope I am still alive to check this one. Note there is also a prediction about the world’s population. Excerpt below. Full article here.

The majority of people on Earth will face severe water shortages within a generation or two if pollution and waste continues unabated, scientists warned at a conference in Bonn Friday.

“This handicap will be self-inflicted and is, we believe, entirely avoidable,” read a document entitled The Bonn Declaration issued at the close of the four-day international huddle.

The conference sought to assess the evidence of man’s impact on freshwater resources, which constitute only 2.5 percent of the total volume of water on Earth.

Currently, an estimated third of the world’s seven million people has limited access to adequate fresh water, according to conference delegates.

“In the short span of one or two generations, the majority of the nine billion people on Earth will be living under the handicap of severe pressure on fresh water,” said the declaration.

The nine billion mark is widely projected to be reached from about 2040.

John Barron Predicts Bad Times

March 3, 2013

This is not an “official” prediction, but it essentially is a prediction that the economy will deteriorate in the following way: higher unemployment and more enrollment in “government programs”. Not sure which programs, presumably food stamps? I can guarantee that, due simply to demographics, there will be more enrolled in Medicare and Social Security due to aging of the population. That is not something the President controls.

Here is the statement: “Of course our burning is figurative, but the American economy is crumbling. Unemployment is getting worse and more people are enrolling in government programs with no sign of turning in any significant way.”

From this blog.

On this one, let’s check back in two years. What will be the unemployment figure, and what will be the food stamp enrollment numbers? We’ll see.


Test of the Liberal

January 1, 2012

The question here is whether, during the next economic growth period, Krugman calls for austerity. It will probably be about “the growth is not fast enough yet.”



David Brooks and the Bond Market

November 13, 2010

Could the ballooning national debt turn the bond markets against us within 10 years? He is optimisitic something will be done.


Brooks–National Greatness Agenda

Can’t wait to see!


The Great Crash Is Coming

July 4, 2010

Get out of stocks now! Prediction made on July 2, 2010, NY Times article. Rober Prechter says Dow below 1,000 before rising again, although when this happens is not clear. I guess that gives him an out. But will the Dow ever reach 1,000 again? Not sure about that!

Robert PrechterMarketForecast July 2, 2010

The Future Success Of iPad

February 2, 2010

Logged on Febraury 1, 2010

Brian: Yes. It will be a moderate to major success.

Vardan: No. It’s not going to gain traction, at least not until the next version with significantly more capability or lower price. There are already better products.

Phil: Apple gives a complete product for the mainstream market. iPad will succeed.